Made to Measure

 I believe that by having a directional bias I am able to better pick a strategy to use. I have three variations of butterflies and condors that I can choose from. If I want to be very directional then there is the Vertical Spread, but this has more risk and a lower win rate if the directional bias is wrong. With my butterflies and condors I am profitable in most cases, even if my directional bias is wrong.


It took me two days to get filled on this Iron Condor. +1425V/-1415C/-1255P/-1245P. I'm showing it as a 10 lot trade with margin of less than $10,000. I received a credit of £1.80 or $1,800 to make this trade. My goal is to keep as much of this money as I can between now and when I take it off before expiry which is in 32 Calendar days.


As you can see in the software, the position has over a 78% chance of making money, even if I don't adjust it. I'll use some of the $1,800 to make adjustments to the trade if I need to. The high of the ES hit a daily FavFib area and I expect a pullback within a day or two. This is one of four criteria I have in order to make this trade. I'll take the position off if I make 10% on my margin or about $900 per 10 contracts. I have a specific trading plan to manage the position until then, as the market unfolds.